Who’s left:
- Roger Federer: Despite what some tennis pundits might be saying, Roger is still the man to beat at the slams. Guys like Igor Andreev might be able challenge Federer by playing crazy go-for-broke tennis for a couple of sets, but it’s impossible for them to maintain that level for the entirety of a best-of-five set match. And as for guys like Hanescu, Montanes, and Hewitt, even their best isn’t good enough to take a set off an in-form Federer.
- Nikolay Davydenko: He cruised though the opening three rounds, but he looked uncharacteristically unsettled against Fernando Verdasco. He’s going to have to pull himself together to pull off an upset of Federer next round.
- Novak Djokovic: The 2008 champion has had a ridiculously easy draw, which is lucky for him because I still don’t think he’s playing that well.
- Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Yeah, he blew a two set lead and ended up going 9-7 in the fifth against Almagro in the fourth round. But on the bright side, he’s now got a one-hundred percent winning record in fifth sets.
- Marin Cilic: A little revenge against Del Potro for beating him in the last two hard court majors. Will he be the obligatory Australian Open surprise finalist this year?
- Andy Roddick: Given the quality of Fernando Gonzalez’s play for most of their fourth round match, Roddick should be out. But of course, Gonzo went Gonzo after a controversial decision by the umpire at the end of the fourth set, and pretty much ended the match.
- Andy Murray: He’s gotten this far with his great defensive skills, but I agree with Mike in Etters: there’s no way he’s beating a healthy Nadal and Federer in a best-of-five set match purely by playing defense.
- Rafael Nadal: He’s starting to look more and more like the guy from the first half of 2009 and not the pushover we saw at the end of last year. Bad news for everyone in the draw.
- The Williams sisters: Venus has looked vulnerable at times; Serena…not so much.
- Zheng and Li: Sometimes they like to show up in the second weeks of majors. I guess they decided it was time to do it again.
- Nadia Petrova: Petrova has taken it upon herself to defeat my favorite players. Thanks for nothing, Nadia.
- Justine Henin: She’s been a little up and down throughout her matches, but just like old times, she’s able to raise her level at the crucial moments.
- Maria Kirilenko: She’s been a mediocre player most of her career, but she took out Sharapova in the first round and hasn’t looked back. Stella McCartney might be regretting swapping Kirilenko for Wozniacki last year.
- Juan Martin Del Potro: Not this time, big guy. Better rest that wrist.
- Robin Soderling: How do you say “flash in the pan” in Swedish?
- Kim Clijsters: She was most people’s pick to win the title, but she only won one game against Petrova in the third round. Not even she knows what the heck happened.
- Svetlana Kuznetsova: Another major, another disappointing result. I really hope it doesn’t take her another five years to win her next Grand Slam title.
- Dinara Safina: Just when it looked like she might be getting back on track, her back injury flares up again. I hope this problem doesn’t become chronic—she already has chronic brain problems.
Second Week Predictions:
As the owner, head writer, and editor of this blog, I reserve the right to revise my original predictions for the tournament.
Quaterfinals:
- Federer def. Davydenko – Davydenko may have won the last two meetings, but that doesn’t nullify the first twelve won by Federer (including all four meetings at the majors).
- Tsonga def. Djokovic – I’m sticking by my original pick for this one. Certainly Djokovic is the fresher of the two, but the fact that he hasn’t really been challenged all tournament may end up hurting him.
- Cilic def. Roddick – Cilic is the kind of powerful, flat hitter that can punish Roddick for his passive tennis from ten feet behind the baseline…I hope.
- Nadal def. Murray – There’s a reason that Nadal has a 7-2 record against Murray. I’m not entirely sure what it is, but I figure it’s the same reason that Nadal will beat Murray tomorrow.
- Azarenka def. Serena – Azarenka has been quietly (although probably not literally) tearing through the draw. And since Serena only wins the Australian open inodd years, Azarenka has a great chance to get the upset.
- Li def. Venus – Somebody needs to take Venus out. I do not need to see the flesh colored underwear again.
- Henin def. Petrova – I’m definitely wavering on this one. On the one hand, Henin has to be getting tired after three tight matches in a row. On the other hand, she already has two decisive wins over Petrova in the last month (one was in an exhibition match). Nadia claims to be a calmer, gentler version of herself now, but I’m just hoping that negative Nadia comes back for this match.
- Kirilenko def. Zheng – Big “who cares?”
- Federer def. Tsonga
- Nadal def. Cilic
- Azarenka def. Li
- Henin def. Kirilenko
- Federer def. Nadal (Revenge!)
- Azarenka def. Henin (Garbage!)
That's all she wrote.
2 comments:
Hello Callie.
Just a couple of things because the women’s semi’s start shortly:
I read somewhere that Nadal may be getting microfracture surgery on his knees. This is bad, bad news. Tennis is not the same without him. He’ll probably miss a year if he has the surgery and he won’t be the same when he comes back. Seriously, if he does have the surgery, afterwards he should play the clay and grass seasons only. The hard courts are killing him.
Federer the man to beat? I think for the last 6 or 7 years, if he loses in a semi, the person that beats Federer wins the tournament. If he loses before the semi’s…Psych! He NEVER loses before the semi’s. He is something else.
In a twist on my murder mystery, the guy with the palindrome name turns out to be the killer. Will Murray be his next victim?
Well, let’s give a little (just a little) credit to A.R. from the USA for hanging in his 4th round. I saw what Gonzalez did during that third set. If someone hit that many winners against me, I’d lie down on the court and curl up in the fetal position.
Bad news on Del Potro as well. And Safina. Jeeze.
I don’t think we’ve heard the last from Soderling.
Good calls on Tsonga def. Djokovic, Cilic def. Roddick (Again, AR gets credit for hanging in). You don’t get credit for Picking Federer because picking against him is just plain dumb.
Also good calls on Li over Venus and Henin over Petrova. Negative Nadia come back as Pissy Petrova. Almost a good call on Azarenka def Serena. Once again Serena put something in Azarenka’s Gatorade. Just a smaller dose. Also, does Serena have any body parts that are not supported by an ace bandage? Never mind, I don’t want to know.
My winners Federer (a shocking pick on my part) and Henin. You read it here first.
Regards to All,
Mike in Etters
Hello Callie.
I generally agree with your assessment of the Men’s final. Summed up nicely with the “Federer is a bad match-up for … almost everyone else on the tour” . I’d omit “almost”. When Federer is right, he decides who will win. He can play defense against the big hitters and the takers of the ball on the rise. He finds offensive position faster than anyone else. He almost never misses an opportunity to attack, either with a court opening groundstroke or a well timed rush of the net. Players that try to grind Roger themselves are ground. All of this is set up by the fact that Roger serves and returns lights out. He has what is, in the understatement of all times, called “a complete game”. Strategy when playing Roger, is sort of pointless. He seems to have the antidote for, and answer to, everything his opponents try. Other Players can look to what Nadal does as he is the one guy who can beat Roger on a big occasion. But I don’t think anyone else can replicate what Nadal does. And it wouldn’t surprise me if Roger comes up with an antidote to Rafa as well.
Murray’s strategy going in: play aggressively, attack Federer’s backhand. As you pointed out, Murray’s backhand is not Nadal’s bouncing head high forehand from hell. Instead it is an effective tennis stroke that more often than not bounced waist high and into Federer’s strike zone. Did you see some of the backhands Federer hit? That shot is not a weakness. As far as Murray being aggressive, Roger didn’t allow that to happen. The short ball was such a rarity that when Murray got one he was more surprised than aggressive. Federer basically neutralizes the game of everyone he plays.
I have been watching tennis for a long time and I am endlessly impressed by this guy. On top of everything else, I have never seen him more focused than he was at the AO. How about the remainder of 2010 for Roger? My guess is that even by his standards, it will be a better than average year. A continuation of the semi-finals at the majors streak? Likely. Another major? Also likely. Two majors? Why not? Three more? If he is careful about schedule and lucky on the health front, not out of the question.
I must admit I haven’t watched the entire Women’s final. What I did see makes me agree with you and the general consensus that Justine was too aggressive. You’re right, she should have tried to move Serena around a bit. I had seen some of Henin’s earlier matches at the AO and at the warm-up (was it Sidney?) and I noticed that Justine was coming in a lot. I thought this was a general effort to shorten points and reduce wear and tear. Certainly she can get away with this tactic against most. Against some of the better players she’ll still have do more point construction. As you point out this could all be in preparation for Wimbledon where an attack all the time mind-set might be beneficial. It will be interesting to see what she does at the French.
Lastly, it was good to hear that Nadal will miss only four weeks. We need him back and healthy and brutalizing the other side of the draw.
Regards to All,
Mike in Etters
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